Impact Evaluation With Counterfactually

WhalePool Stage

Impact & Public Goods

Spork Castle 1st Floor

Feb 27, 2025

4:30 PM

Our idea centers on applying counterfactual thinking to the evaluation of public goods funding. Specifically, we propose exploring the question: What if this funding never occurred? Impact is essentially the difference between what did happen (due to funding) and what would have happened otherwise—the counterfactual scenario. Currently, impact evaluation in public goods funding is imprecise, often relying on qualitative assessments or subjective measures. This fuzziness arises because counterfactuals—scenarios where an intervention or funding did not occur—are challenging to evaluate. However, fields like economics have long used robust tools like synthetic control, which builds a statistical model of what would have happened without the intervention, to approximate counterfactuals. By adapting such techniques to public goods funding, we can create a framework to measure impact more rigorously, lending credibility to funding decisions and refining how resources are allocated. This approach not only helps us evaluate past funding rounds but also informs better decision-making for future rounds by establishing measurable, science-backed benchmarks for success. It represents a step forward in aligning funding strategies with evidence-based impact.

speakers

Sejal Rekhan -

Lau NaMu -

Devansh Mehta -

Moderator

David Dao -

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